Why Russia want to change their Nuclear Doctrine ?

Here’s a general outline we could follow:

Outline: Russian Nuclear Doctrine

1. Introduction

   - Brief overview of nuclear doctrines globally

   - Historical evolution of Russia's nuclear policy

2. Historical Context of Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine

   - Cold War era nuclear policy of the USSR

   - Post-Cold War adjustments in the 1990s

   - Role of nuclear weapons during the breakup of the Soviet Union

3. Current Russian Nuclear Doctrine

   - Official Russian documents and statements

   - The role of nuclear weapons in Russia's national security strategy

   - Key principles such as deterrence, proportionality, and escalation control

4. Nuclear Modernization Efforts

   - Upgrading nuclear arsenals

   - New missile systems (e.g., Sarmat, Avangard)

   - Technological advancements and their strategic significance

5. Strategic Deterrence and Escalation

   - Concepts of first-use and second-strike capabilities

   - "Escalate to de-escalate" strategy

   - Tactical nuclear weapons and battlefield use

6. International Implications

   - Impact on NATO and Western security

   - Russia’s nuclear stance in relation to arms control treaties (e.g., New START)

   - Tensions with the U.S., Europe, and other nuclear powers

7. Challenges and Criticisms of the Doctrine

   - Potential risks of miscalculation

   - Criticisms from Western analysts and military experts

   - Challenges posed by international norms and non-proliferation efforts

8. Future of Russian Nuclear Strategy

   - Potential shifts in doctrine in response to geopolitical changes

   - Prospects for arms control and disarmament

   - The future of Russia’s nuclear force posture

9. Conclusion

   - Summary of key points

   - Russia’s nuclear doctrine in the context of global security

 Explanation of the Russian Nuclear Doctrine

 1. Introduction

The Russian nuclear doctrine refers to the policies, strategies, and principles governing Russia's use of nuclear weapons. Like all nuclear doctrines, it outlines under what conditions the nation would consider using nuclear weapons, how they contribute to its national security, and how they are deployed as a deterrent against potential adversaries. Russia, as one of the world’s foremost nuclear powers, has historically placed significant emphasis on its nuclear capabilities as a core element of its defense strategy. This doctrine not only reflects Russia’s military stance but also its geopolitical position in the post-Cold War world.

The current Russian nuclear doctrine is shaped by its historical experiences, including the Cold War nuclear arms race, the disintegration of the Soviet Union, and the evolving nature of global strategic threats. The doctrine is a complex mix of deterrence theory, modernization, and strategic posturing that positions nuclear weapons as central to Russia’s national security policy. As we dive deeper, we will explore how the doctrine has evolved, its current components, and the international implications it carries.

 2. Historical Context of Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine

Russia’s nuclear doctrine can only be fully understood by examining the Cold War era and the role of nuclear weapons in Soviet military strategy. During the Cold War, nuclear weapons were central to the Soviet Union’s confrontation with the West. The doctrine of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) between the U.S. and USSR served as the foundation for deterrence, meaning both sides understood that a nuclear strike would lead to devastating retaliation, ensuring total destruction for both.

After the Cold War, in the 1990s, Russia faced severe economic and political turmoil, which affected its military capabilities, including its nuclear arsenal. Despite these challenges, Russia maintained its nuclear force as a symbol of great power status and as a critical component of its national defense. During this time, there was a significant debate within Russian military and political circles on whether to adopt a more flexible nuclear posture, including first-use policies, due to the perceived weakness of its conventional forces.

3. Current Russian Nuclear Doctrine

The most recent publicly available Russian nuclear doctrine was published in June 2020, reflecting an updated strategic posture that combines deterrence and potential limited use of nuclear weapons. The doctrine highlights the following key elements:

- Deterrence: Russia views nuclear weapons as a tool to deter aggression, especially by major nuclear-armed states like the U.S. and NATO. Russia’s deterrence strategy focuses not only on nuclear threats but also on countering conventional threats that might undermine its sovereignty or territorial integrity.

  

- First-use Policy: Unlike some countries that have a "no first use" policy, Russia’s doctrine allows for the use of nuclear weapons in response to non-nuclear aggression that threatens the state’s survival. This includes situations where conventional military threats could be deemed catastrophic for Russia.

- Strategic Deterrence Forces: Russia maintains a triad of land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and strategic bombers. This triad ensures second-strike capability, meaning that even if Russia were attacked, it could still retaliate with devastating nuclear force.

- Proportionality and Controlled Escalation: Russia’s doctrine includes the possibility of a controlled, limited use of nuclear weapons in regional conflicts to de-escalate a situation or compel an adversary to cease hostilities.

 4. Nuclear Modernization Efforts

Over the last decade, Russia has embarked on a comprehensive modernization of its nuclear forces, investing heavily in upgrading its strategic and tactical nuclear weapons. Some of the notable advancements include:

- RS-28 Sarmat: A new heavy ICBM, capable of carrying multiple warheads and designed to evade modern missile defense systems.

- Avangard Hypersonic Glide Vehicle: An advanced weapon system capable of maneuvering at hypersonic speeds, designed to overcome enemy missile defenses.

- Poseidon Nuclear Torpedo: A novel nuclear-powered, nuclear-armed unmanned underwater vehicle capable of delivering a devastating nuclear payload.

These advancements have made Russia’s nuclear arsenal more sophisticated and capable of countering both strategic nuclear threats and advancements in missile defense systems by NATO and the U.S.

 5. Strategic Deterrence and Escalation

One of the most controversial aspects of the Russian nuclear doctrine is its "escalate to de-escalate" strategy. This refers to the potential use of low-yield or tactical nuclear weapons early in a conflict to "shock" an adversary into ceasing further military actions. Russia appears to believe that the threat or limited use of nuclear weapons could de-escalate a conflict by convincing its adversaries that continuing the conflict would lead to unacceptable losses.

The doctrine also emphasizes maintaining a credible second-strike capability, ensuring that even if Russia were hit with a nuclear attack, it could respond in kind. This forms the basis of its deterrence strategy, signaling to adversaries that any attack on Russia would result in their destruction as well.

 6. International Implications

Russia’s nuclear doctrine has significant implications for global security, particularly concerning NATO, the U.S., and other nuclear powers. The modern Russian nuclear arsenal and its stated willingness to use nuclear weapons in various scenarios pose challenges for NATO’s collective defense strategy. NATO has responded by modernizing its own nuclear posture, leading to a renewed arms race reminiscent of Cold War tensions.

The doctrine also has implications for arms control agreements. For instance, the future of the New START treaty, which limits the number of deployed strategic nuclear weapons for both Russia and the U.S., is uncertain given the strained relationship between the two powers. Russia’s emphasis on nuclear modernization and new weapons systems, some of which are not covered under existing treaties, further complicates the arms control landscape.

 7. Challenges and Criticisms of the Doctrine

Russia’s nuclear doctrine has been met with criticism from various quarters. One of the major concerns is the risk of miscalculation or accidental escalation, especially in a situation where tactical nuclear weapons are used in a conflict. The "escalate to de-escalate" strategy is particularly worrisome for Western analysts, as it could lead to a situation where nuclear weapons are used early in a conflict, potentially spiraling into a full-scale nuclear war.

There are also criticisms regarding the compatibility of Russia’s doctrine with international non-proliferation efforts. While Russia remains a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), its modernization efforts and willingness to use nuclear weapons in various scenarios raise concerns about its commitment to nuclear disarmament.

 8. Future of Russian Nuclear Strategy

The future of Russia’s nuclear doctrine will depend largely on the evolving geopolitical landscape. Relations with the U.S. and NATO, as well as developments in Asia (particularly with China), will play a critical role in shaping future nuclear strategies. Russia may further adjust its doctrine to address emerging threats, such as cyber warfare and space-based weapons systems, both of which could play a role in future conflicts.

There are also ongoing debates within Russia about whether to place more emphasis on conventional military forces or continue to rely heavily on nuclear weapons. This will likely be influenced by Russia’s economic capacity to sustain its current nuclear modernization program in the face of sanctions and potential economic difficulties.

 9. Conclusion

In conclusion, the Russian nuclear doctrine is a complex blend of deterrence, escalation control, and modernization. It reflects Russia’s historical reliance on nuclear weapons as the ultimate guarantor of national security, particularly in a world where its conventional military capabilities may not match those of NATO or the U.S. The doctrine poses significant challenges for global security, raising concerns about the risk of nuclear escalation in future conflicts.

Understanding Russia’s nuclear doctrine is crucial for analyzing its foreign policy and military strategy, as well as for shaping international efforts aimed at reducing the risk of nuclear war and promoting arms control agreements. The future of Russia’s nuclear policy will continue to be a key factor in global security dynamics, especially as new technologies and geopolitical tensions evolve.